文档介绍：首都经济贸易大学
硕士学位论文
技术创新扩散过程的元胞自动机仿真研究
姓名:马思杰
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:管理科学与工程
指导教师:姚翠友
20100201
首都经济贸易大学博(硕)士学位论文《技术创新扩散过程的元胞自动机仿真研究》

摘要
随着知识经济、信息经济的不断发展,技术创新已经逐渐成为影响一个企业、一
个地区、一个国家经济发展的重要因素。可持续发展,作为现代经济发展所倡导的根
本要求,必须通过技术的不断创新、不断突破,才能够得到保障和顺利实现。
技术创新对经济的影响,主要是通过技术创新扩散来体现的。技术创新的扩散过
程,强调的是技术创新成果在企业、地区、国家之间的传播,它不仅体现了技术创新
在传播者与接受者之间的学习过程,更体现了一种优胜劣汰的市场原则。
本文首先介绍了技术创新扩散过程的研究背景和研究现状,对元胞自动机的相关
基础理论进行说明,然后基于技术创新扩散过程的 Fisher-Pry 模型,建立相应的元胞
自动机模型,并以北京市近几年的互联网宽带接入用户为研究对象进行实证分析。最
后,对实际数据、Fisher-Pry 模型和元胞自动机模型三者进行对比,分析元胞自动机
模型与实际数据之间的拟合度,预测未来一年内北京互联网宽带接入用户的数量。

关键字:元胞自动机技术创新扩散模型拟合度
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首都经济贸易大学博(硕)士学位论文《技术创新扩散过程的元胞自动机仿真研究》
Abstract
With the development of knowledge economy and information economy, technology
innovation was getting an important factor which influence businesses, domains and the
native economy development. The sustainable development as the essential requirement of
modern economic development must be achieved by the innovation and the breakthrough
of technology.
The influence of the technology innovation on the economy is mainly incarnated by the
pervasion of the innovation. The diffusion of the innovation production is emphasized
among businesses, domains and countries the process of the pervasion. The process
illustrates that not only the learning processes during the disseminators and the embracers,
but also the market principle that the excellent wins.
This paper firstly introduces the research background and condition of the process of the
technology innovation pervasion and describes the involved fundamental theory of Cellular
Automata. Based on the Fisher-Pry models in the pervasion process, the corresponding
models could be made. The broadband connection customers in these a few years
in Beijing would be analyzed as case study.

Key Words: Cellular Automata pervasion of technology inn