文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
人民币汇率制度与我国货币政策协调研究
姓名:郑群妮
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:西方经济学
指导教师:徐长生
20070606
摘要
中国经济的对外开放程度越来越高,国际收支顺差规模持续增长。巨额贸易顺
差暴露出中国经济发展的内外不均衡。外汇储备的快速增加对我国货币政策有效性
带来严峻挑战。在面临人民币汇率升值的巨大压力下,借鉴和吸取其他国家和地区
的经济发展和汇率制度安排的经验和教训,研究货币政策与汇率制度改革的协调,
对我国的经济稳定和持续发展具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。
本文运用米德冲突模型、蒙代尔—弗莱明模型、克鲁格曼“三元悖论”等理论,
从不同的角度对汇率政策与货币政策冲突的原因进行了阐述,分析了汇率制度的选
择是如何导致货币政策的无效性。在此基础上,对我国 1994 年以来人民币汇率制
度与货币政策的多次冲突进行了实证分析,着重探讨了 2005 年汇率制度改革后的
冲突原因及其表现。本文认为导致此次冲突的原因主要在于外汇储备的增加使得货
币供应量剧增,流动性过剩,通货膨胀压力增大,人民币升值和通货膨胀并存,而
货币政策的长期和短期目标不明确。最后针对当前我国开放经济的现实情况,提出
了汇率制度与货币政策协调的思路,即货币政策应以控制通货膨胀为长期目标,短
期内应防止资产价格泡沫,与财政政策配合使用,发挥利率工具的作用,不断完善
外汇和资本市场,以推动我国经济和金融的持续稳定发展。

关键词:汇率制度货币政策政策协调
I
Abstract
The opening degree of China's economy es higher increasingly. The
surplus of balance of payments surplus is growing persistently. While huge foreign
exchange surplus demonstrates that there is internal unbalance and external unbalance in
China’s economy. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves brings great pressure to
appreciation of RMB, which challenges ary policies severely. Therefore, studying
the coordination of the ary policy and exchange rate system has very important
theoretic and practical meaning to the sustainable development of China’s economy.
Some theories about coordination are introduced, including Meade’s Conflict,
Mundell-Flemming Model and Krugman Trilemma. The relationship between different
choice of exchange rate system and effectiveness of ary policy is analyzed. This
thesis focuses on the reason for the conflict between them since 2005. It deems that the
reason which causes this conflict lies mainly in the increase of the foreign exchange
reserve. RMB revaluation and inflation coexist in China. Some suggestions for
coordination between exchange rate system and ary policy are presented. The
ary policy should control the inflation in the long-term and prevent the foam of
assets prices in the short term. It’s better to cooperate wi