文档介绍：河北经贸大学
硕士学位论文
动态视角的河北省产业结构优化研究
姓名:马鹏程
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:赵秀恒
20100330
摘要
近年来,河北省每年的 GDP 连续保持快速稳健的增长。但与此同时,经济快速发展
背后潜藏着巨大矛盾。产业结构失衡己经成为宏观调控的一大起因,即使有各种宏观调
控的措施,经济运行中依然存在着各种显而易见的问题。面向未来,与长期发展相伴的
人口压力、资源短缺、环境恶化、生态破坏等,不仅始终困扰着河北省经济的发展,也
始终伴随着河北省的经济发展。因此,研究多目标条件下的河北省产业结构优化问题,
具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文首先通过对河北省产业结构优化调整的历史回顾说明河北省的产业结构优化
一直以经济增长为主要目标,应用偏离份额分析(SSA)方法,分析了河北省产业结构现
,通过实证研究与理论分析论证了产业结构变动与经济波动、能源消
耗、充分就业之间的关系,指出除经济增长目标外,能源消耗与充分就业也应成为产业
结构优化的目标。根据现实条件制约因素,构建了河北省产业结构多目标动态优化模型,
并给出了模型的求解程序。模型优化结果显示,单一经济增长目标下,2005--2020 年河
北省经济仍可实现 14%左右的年均增长率,
源消耗目标目标下,虽然可以实现对能耗有效控制,
分就业的情况下,第二产业仍要占主导地位。在综合标优化方案中,模型优化结果较为
理想,各产业发展适合目前河北省所处的工业阶段,达到了建模目的。

关键词:产业结构多目标优化动态优化充分就业

III
Abstract

In recent years, the GDP in Hebei Province maintained a rapid continuous rubust growth
annual, At the same time, rapid economic development are enormous potential contradictions.
Structural imbalance has e a major cause of macroeconomic regulation and control,
even though there are various macro-control measures, the economic operation still exists a
variety of obvious problems. Future-oriented, and long-term development panied by
population pressure, shortage of resources, environmental degradation, ecological destruction,
not only has plagued the economic development in Hebei Province, Hebei Province also
always panied by economic development. Therefore, the study under the conditions of
multi-objective optimization of industrial structure in Hebei Province, has important
theoretical significance and practical justice.
In this paper, through the adjustment of industrial structure in Hebei Province historical
review shows the industrial structure in Hebei Province has been the main objective of
economic growth. By Shift-share analysis (SSA) method to analyze the status quo of
industrial structure in Hebei Province. In the target study, through empirical research a