文档介绍：首都经济贸易大学
硕士学位论文
我国农村居民人身保险需求的实证研究
姓名:刘欢
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:纪宏;沈大庆
20090401
论文摘要
近年来随着城市保险市场竞争的加剧以及农村经济的发展和社会主义新农村
建设的推进广大农村保险市场逐渐为人们所关注在有关农业农村农民的三
农保险中有关为农民意外医疗人寿等提供保障的农村人身保险作为构筑农
村社会保障体系的重要组成部分对农村实现小康构建和谐社会具有重要的作用
理应得到大力发展
本文的研究建立在利用农村宏观数据和对农村居民的入户调查数据从不同角
度对农村人身保险需求与农村经济发展水平农村居民收入等相关变量之间的相
互关系作了分析从实证的角度验证了农村居民人身保险需求的影响因素提出了
提高农民人身保障水平的政策建议论文在实测数据的基础上运用判别分析 Logit
模型马尔柯夫链等统计分析技术和向量自回归模型以及脉冲响应函数等计量分析
方法探讨了农村人身保险需求和居民收入等相关变量之间的理论联系和数量关系
同时从居民对不同人身险险种需求的角度出发分析了不同群体的农村居民对于
保险的偏好程度为研究农村保险市场的发展方向提供了可靠地依据对建立和完
善我国农村人身保险制度具有一定的参考价值
主题词农村人身保险需求实证分析政策建议
I
Abstract
In recent years, With the city's insurance petition, the
development of county economic and the construction of socialist new rural,
insurance market in rural areas is concerned by people generally. In the
insurance of agriculture, rural areas and peasants, the rural residents’ personal
insurance that is for the peasants accidents, medical care, old-age security is
an ponent of the rural social security system, which plays an
important role in implementation of rural well-off, and a harmonious
society,and should be actively developed.
This study use the macro data in rural areas and the survey data of rural
residents , From different angles, the thesis analyses the relationship between
the rural residents’ insurance needs and the level of economic development in
rural areas, rural people's e-related variables. It proofs the impact
factors of rural residents’ personal insurance needs from empirical, and
proposes the policy of improving the level of rural residents’ personal security.
The thesis based on measured data uses statistical analysis techniques such as
discriminant analysis, Logit model, Markov chain, and the methods of
Econometrics such as VAR(Vector Auto regression) model and the impulse
response function to explore the theory and quantity contact in rural residents’
personal insurance needs and people's e and other related variables. At
the same ti