一种航班延误应急管理决策支持系统研究.doc

文档介绍：
一种航班延误应急管理决策支持系统研究#
陈晔,杨溢*
(南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京 210016)
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摘要:随着经济的快速发展,我国民航业取得了举世瞩目的成就。我国航空运输各项指标持
续快速增长,在国际民航中的地位不断提高,在国内综合交通运输体系中的比重显著增加。
但随着民航规模的快速扩展,管理水平不足的矛盾日益突出。航空运输量的迅猛增长使得各
种突发应急事件发生的几率大大增加,由停飞、延误导致的纠纷事件给航空公司、旅客带来
了不小的损失。如何有效地应对突发应急事件,做好应急管理工作,是民航业目前面临的重
要课题。本文对民航应急管理进行了系统地研究,分析了我国民航对于延误类突发事件的研
究的现状,以及民航应急管理决策系统;在此基础上,针对因停飞、延误导致的航空公司和
乘客纠纷事件较多的问题,从冲突事件内部入手,分析利益相关者(决策者)之间可采取的
行动和相应的策略,应用定性和定量相结合的 GMCR 模型(冲突分析的图形模型理论)描
述了冲突的衍化过程,并根据多种平衡点的定义,分析得出可能的稳定局势,从而帮助决策
者更深入地理解冲突的内涵,提高有效解决问题的能力。
关键词:民航延误,应急管理,GMCR
中图分类号:C273;
A Decision Support Tool for Emergency Management of
Flight Delay
CHEN Ye, YANG Yi
(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
Nanjing 210016)
Abstract: With the rapid development of China economy, Chinese civil aviation industry (CCAI) has
made significant achievements. Aviation transportation indices grow fast, and its proportion in Chinese
comprehensive transportation system is raised greatly, AI is projecting a louder voice
internationally. The remarkable volume increase of passenger and cargo transportation requires
mangers AI to tackle challenging management problems more effectively and efficiently as the
possibility of emergency events dramatically increases. In this thesis emergency flight delays has been
prehensively. Overviews AI and the research on emergency management have been
carried out first followed by a detailed explanation of emergency management system in civil aviation
industry. Based upon that, the GMCR (graph model for conflict resolution) theory has been applied to
investigate conflicts between customers and airlines caused by various emergency events including
flight delay and cancellation, and provide insightful strategic suggestions AI.
Key words: Emergency flight delays; Emergency management; GMCR.
0 引言
改革开放 30 年来,我国民航事业无论在航空运输、通用航空、机群更新、机场建设、
航线布局、航行保障、飞行安全、人才培训等方面都持续快速发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就。
民航事业的发展与国家的经济发展