文档介绍：河北大学
硕士学位论文
基于可计算一般均衡模型的河北省节能潜力分析
姓名:郭环
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:刘树
2011-06
摘要
摘要
能源资源短缺已经成为制约河北省经济发展的重要因素,政府相继出台各种能源经
济政策来保障节能目标的顺利实现和保持经济的平稳发展,然而这两个目标间存在着一
定的矛盾,因此各种政策的制定和实施力度需要在这两者中间权衡。河北省目前各种能
源经济政策的实施效果有待进一步验证,因此本文结合河北省当前的经济发展状况,探
讨各种可选择的节能政策,并对可能带来的宏观经济效果和节能效果进行了量化分析,
具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文借助于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE 模型)强大的政策模拟功能,并且以构建的
河北省社会核算矩阵(SAM 矩阵)为数据基础,建立河北省能源 CGE 模型,模拟了提
高第三产业的比例和征收能源税的宏观经济效果和节能效果,结果显示了提高第三产业
既可以保证河北省的经济平稳的增长,使河北省的经济发展质量提高,也有一定的节能
效果,是三赢的办法。征收能源税,会对经济的增长有一定的负面影响,但是它使河北
省的经济发展质量有所提高,增加值率有所提高,它的单位增加值耗能是有所下降的,
节能效果也是不容忽视的。文章的最后给出了对应的政策建议,为河北省的节能政策提
供参考。

关键词社会核算矩阵 CGE 模型政策模拟
I
Abstract
Abstract
The shortage of energy resources has been an obstacle of the development of economic
in Hebei Province. Economic policies which used to ensure the various of Energy efficiency
goals e realization and maintain stady and reapid development of the economy have
been introduced by the there are some confilicts between the two
goals,formulation and implementation of policies need to balance the contradiction between
the two present, the implementation of various energy effects and economic policies
to be further bined with the development of economic present
situation to explore alternative energy policies. Quantitative analysis the effects of
macroeconomic effects and energy saving brought by these has a very important
practical significance.
Due to the powerful functions putable General Equilibrium model (CGE model )
in policy simulations and base of social accounting matrix(SAM),this paper establish CGE
model of Hebei Province. This paper simulated the macroeconomic effects and energy-saving
effect of the increased proportion of tertiary industry The results showed that raising the
proportion of tertiary industry can not only guarantee stable economic growth iand improve
the quality of economic development in Hebei Province,but also there are ce