文档介绍：河北大学
硕士学位论文
河北省城镇化影响农民收入的传导路径及其实证分析
姓名:陈明超
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:李林杰
2011-06
摘要
摘要
2008 年初,河北省委省政府提出了“三年大变样、推进城镇化”的战略部署,全
省各市按照部署计划实施,在推进城镇化,提高人民生活质量方面取得了一定的成效。
但是纵观河北省的整体情况,河北省的城镇化水平在全国排名落后,大量农村剩余劳动
力滞留在农村不能及时转移,农民收入增长缓慢,收入水平在全国沿海省市排名落后,
城乡居民收入差距进一步的扩大,城乡矛盾突显。在这种背景下,如何通过省城镇化把
农村的富余的劳动力转移出去,进而实现农民收入水平的提高,具有重要的现实意义。
本文在揭示河北省的城镇化进程以及河北省农民收入水平以及结构的基础上,对城
镇化影响农民收入的传导路径进行了深入的分析,并在理论分析的基础上,运用河北省
1983-2008 年的时间序列数据通过向量自回归模型对城镇化、农民人均纯收入以及人均
GDP 三者之间的动态效应进行了定量分析,最后针对存在的现实问题,提出了促进河北
省城镇化顺利发展的对策建议。

关键词河北省城镇化农民收入向量自回归模型
I
Abstract
Abstract
At the beginning of the 2008, Hebei Provincial Government has proposed the strategic
plan of the big change in three years and promoting the process of the Urbanization, each city
of Hebei was in accordance with the implementation of the deployment plan, in the areas of
promoting the process of the Urbanization and improving the quality of life, Hebei province
has made some effectiveness. But throughout the whole situation of Hebei, the urbanization
level of Hebei was behind in the national rankings, a large number of surplus labors which
was still stranded in the rural could not transfer in time, the growth of farmers′s e was
slow, urban and rural residents′s e gap was further expanding, the urban and rural
areas′s contradictions was prominent . In this context , how to transfer the surplus labors by
the Urbanization and then improve farmers′s e had important practical significance .
On the basis of revealing the process of urbanization,e level and structure of
farmers, this paper in-depth analysis the pathway of how Urbanization affects the rural
residents′s e, moreover, on the basis of the theoretical analysis, this paper using
1983-2008 data and adopting the VAR model analysed the dynamic relationship between the
Urbanization, farmers′s e and Per capita GDP, finally proposed the suggestions of
Smooth development of the urbanization which aimed the actual problem.