文档介绍：河北大学
硕士学位论文
河北省房地产开发水平的评价与预测
姓名:王金磊
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:刘树
20100501
摘要
摘要
房地产开发是国民经济的重要组成部分,是房地产商品从开发、建设、到生产竣工,
并能顺利进入市场,实现房地产商品的价值,满足社会对房地产商品需求的经济活动。
房地产业在国民经济中占有重要的分量,关系着国民经济的命脉。随着经济发展,近年
来房地产业投资增长很快,房地产的开发对河北省的经济发展起到了很大的推动作用,
正是因为房地产的开发关系着国计民生,所以我们有必要深入的探讨房地产的开发是否
高效,以及怎样才能使我省房地产业科学、可持续的发展,使房地产业振兴的同时,更
好的为国民经济服务,为广大人民群众服务。
本文在总结前人研究的基础上,首先,建立了评价房地产开发水平的指标体系,从
不同层面反映我省房地产开发的水平,对房地产的开发水平从立体的角度评价,对房地
产开发水平有个全面的、科学的了解,并且充分利用所得到的数据,以因子分析,聚类
分析为主要的分析方法,评价我省房地产开发水平,最后用 ARIMA 模型预测我省房地产
发展的趋势。
通过实证研究,得出了影响我省房地产开发主要因素,并在此基础上提出了有针对
性的对策建议。

关键词房地产开发因子分析聚类分析预测
I
Abstract
Abstract
Real estate development is an ponent of national economy,it make the
real estate goods essfully enter the market and realize the value to meet munity's
demand modities after development, construction pletion to production. Real
estate is an ponent in the national economy, it tie the lifeblood of the national
economy, with economic development, in recent years the investment of real estate grown
rapidly, real estate development in Hebei Province's economic development has indeed played
a a great impetus, precisely because the real estate and the people's livelihood have an close
relationship , so we need to explore in depth whether the development of real estate is
efficient or not, and how can the real estate industry in our province development
scientifically and sustainable, make the real estate industry revitalize, at the same time,
provide better service for the national economy and for the majority of people.
In this paper, based on previous studies, firstly, establishing an evaluation index system
of the level of real estate development, to reflect the level of real estate development in our
province from the different levels, evaluating the level of real estate development from the
multi-dimensional,perspective, then has prehensive scientific understanding of the level
on real estate development, and take full advant