文档介绍：Climatic Change
DOI -010-9930-6
Contributions of individual countries’ emissions
to climate change and their uncertainty
Niklas Höhne · Helcio Blum · Jan Fuglestvedt · Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie ·
Atsushi Kurosawa · Guoquan Hu · Jason Lowe · Laila Gohar · Ben Matthews ·
Ana Claudia Nioac de Salles · Christian Ellermann
Received: 2 December 2007 / Accepted: 24 June 2010
© Springer Science+Business Media . 2010
Abstract We piled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncer-
tainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative
emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the
future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates
differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time
development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very
uncertain, their influence on countries’ or sectors’ contributions to temperature in-
crease is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent
(high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature
B
N. Höhne ( ) · C. Ellermann
Ecofys Germany GmbH, Am Wassermann 36, 50829 Cologne, Germany
e-mail: @
H. Blum · A. C. Nioac de Salles
IVIG, University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
J. Fuglestvedt · R. B. Skeie
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
A. Kurosawa
Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan
G. Hu
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
J. Lowe · L. Gohar
Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK
B. Matthews
Institut d’astronomie et de geophysique, Universite Catholique de Louvain,
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
C. Ellermann
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Climatic Change
rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger tha