文档介绍：基金项目:哈尔滨市科技创新人才研究专项资金(2007RFXXN0040)
作者简介:陈欣(1985—),女,黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,硕士,主要从事畜牧兽医信息技术研究。E-mail:chenxin0214xy@
*通讯作者:王洪斌,教授,博导,主要从事兽医信息学、动物麻醉和动物用腹腔镜方面的研究。E-mail:******@neau.
基于BP与GRNN神经网络的PRRS预测模型的研究
陈欣,肖建华,栾培贤,徐强,王洪斌*
(东北农业大学动物医学学院,哈尔滨 150030)
摘要:对气象数据和猪蓝耳病发病率进行相关性分析,结合动物流行病学理论确定影响猪蓝耳病发病的关键气象因素。利用Matlab软件进行BP与GRNN网络预测模型构建,计算预测值与实际发病率的误差绝对值和决定系数R2对所建预测模型进行检验。结果表明将13种气象因素作为预测研究的关键气象因子,BP与GRNN神经网络模型决定系数分别为R12=,R22=,表明GRNN模型预测效果较好。初步构建出PRRS发病的神经网络预测模型,为进一步展开动物疫病预测的研究提供理论参考。
关键词:猪蓝耳病;预测模型;人工神经网络;气象因素
中图分类号:S858·315·3 文献标识码: A
Study on BP work and GRNN in Prediction of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome
XinChen, JianhuaXiao, PeixianLuan, QiangXiang, HongbinWang
(College of veterinanry Medicine,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030)
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome morbidity, and to determine the key factors that affect Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome. Having built BP and GRNN work forecasting model by Matlab software, we tested the performance of the model according to the coefficient of determination (R2) and absolute values of the difference between predictive value and practical morbidity. The results showed that 13 kinds of meteorological factors were determined, and the model’s coefficient of determination w