文档介绍：Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73 (2006) 981–1012
Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and
patent analysis
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Tugrul U. Daim , Guillermo Rueda, Hilary Martin, Pisek Gerdsri
Portland State University, Maseeh College of Engineering puter Science, Department of Engineering and
Technology Management, . Box 751, Portland OR 97207-0751, United States
Received 15 August 2005; received in revised form 3 March 2006; accepted 29 April 2006
Abstract
It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the
use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three
emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology
forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able
to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel
cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the
proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.
© 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Technology forecasting experts agree that models should be used bination [1,2]. plex
consumer technologies there are usually anization factors—political, cultural, etc—that
influence the rate of diffusion for mercial technology. Technical trend analyses alone usually cannot
incorporate anizational and political scenarios that will influence future technologies. The analysis
proposed for the models incorporates several different technology forecasting methodologies spanning
the technical, organizational personal perspectives (see Fig. 1) [3]. Technical perspectives are addressed
using data for historical analogies as well as patent trend analysis curve fitting. Organizati