文档介绍：!皇曼曼曼曼曼鼍曼皇曼鼍曼曼曼曼曼量量量曼曼量曼皇罾舅舅鼍曼鼍曼曼曼曼量量皇蔓皇曼皇曼曼曼曼中文摘要“预备立宪”在中,可以说它与清政府的命运息息相关,正是它的重要性也决定了这次改革的坎坷性与不确定性。从前期的准备到中期的实施,直至后期的收场,这一过程无不充满了派系斗争的影子, 或出于公论,或为谋得私利,对于那些别有用心的政客而言,“预备立宪”恰恰成为其掩饰自己野心最好的幌子。这场改革本身就充满了复杂性,顽固派和立宪派关于在中国当时的历史条件下要不要立宪的争论,大有你死我活的态势,从某一方面来说,正应和了博弈论中的零和博弈。文章的第一部分就是以零和博弈的四种分布情况来分析顽固派和立宪派做出选择的依据,从而为王朝的取向偏好提供了理论基础。第二部分以博弈论之中的严格从优战略为出发点,通过对慈禧选择的分析,指出“预备立宪”不失为一种上上策,既可以满足立宪派和国内要求改革的呼声,又不至于让顽固派太过于孤立,宪政虽然难产,但最终在蹒跚中也尘埃落定。然而,在博弈论中被称为“自然’’的慈禧太后的离世,让原本就艰难前行的宪政改革一下子找不到前进的方向,蛰伏已久的派系矛盾再次不可抑制地爆发了,只不过依然打的是“立宪"的旗号,由此拉开了以载沣为首的晚清少壮派和以袁世凯为首的袁氏集团对晚清权力的最后博弈。文章第三部分侧重于这两派对权力争夺的描写,此时的立宪意味已经不像开始时那样浓重,立宪真正开始沦为一种工具,晚清少壮派正是因为无法应对立宪这一局面而最终受到致命一击,把自己到手的权力拱手相让。这一部分以博弈论中的“智猪博弈"为例,从这一案例中来进一步分析刻画袁世凯是如何由小变大, 由弱变强,并最终将权力收入囊中。文章通过将博弈论融入到“预备立宪"这一过程中来展示这一改革的产生,发展和夭亡。关键词:预备立宪;博弈论;立宪派;顽固派山东大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT Preliminary constitution used tobecrucialinChinese history ofconstitutional concerned thedestiny oflaterQing a matter offact,its importance is the reason ofdifficulty and uncertainty thevery beginning toimplementation inthemiddle totheending,there were discords among malicious politicians used Preliminary constitution toconceal conservative party and thediehardsconfrontedsharply on this issue. The firstpart ofpaper discusses the reason why thetwo different parties chose their own position,which wonderfully offerstheoretical baseofthedeclineofthe second partanalysis Cixi’Soption,it prefers tothechoice ofpreliminary constitution,which couldechoboththeconservative party andthediehards. However,after thedeath ofCixi,the revolution was suddenly indilemma,the contradictions broke ,the two parties leadedby Zaifeng and Yuan Shikai respectively fought inorder to possess themselves ofQing dynasty’S sovereignty. The thirdpartemphasizes on thedescription oftheconfrontationbetween the preliminary constitutionbecame aweapon,with which Yuan Shikai beatZaifen