文档介绍：学校代码:10254
密级:
论文编号:
上海海事大学
SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
硕士学位论文
MASTER DISSERTATION
论文题目:油价波动对我国航运企业的影响研究
学科专业: 国际贸易学
作者姓名: 郑旸
指导教师: 余思勤教授
完成日期:二〇〇九年六月
摘要
石油是交通运输业最主要的原料。据统计,燃油成本约占航运企业成本的30%-40%,油料价格的波动直接关系到航运企业的效益。在高价油时代,如何立足自身,采取综合措施降低油耗,走节能降耗之路,已成了各家航运企业不得不面对的严峻课题。
第一章主要介绍本文研究的背景、意义以及国内外的研究现状。
第二章对我国航运企业的现状以及发展趋势进行了详细的分析,以及其面对的机遇和挑战,为进一步研究奠定坚实的基础。
第三章的油价波动周期模型,有利于企业对未来油价进行预测。由于国际油价波动给我国航运企业带来较大的影响,这一模型可以让企业更好的应对市场带来的挑战。
第四章运用企业内部成本控制理论,分析我国企业如何应对油价上涨带来的挑战,做出油价上涨与我国航运企业利润之间关系的定量分析。
第五章提出有利于我国航运企业应对油价上涨的措施,如成本控制法,金融方法,以及开展综合物流。
总之,论文以航运企业为切入点,运用定性和定量结合的方法,讨论航运企业的运行机制和市场行为。通过对上市航运公司年度报表的分析,建模,得到航运企业利润和油价波动的关系。并且对航运企业的发展趋势进行了分析,提出合理的建议。
关键词: 国际油价,油价波动,航运企业成本,成本控制,贸易系数
ABSTRACT
Oil is the most important raw material for the transportation industry. According to the statistics, the Bunker Cost account for about 30%-40%of the shipping enterprise’s cost. The fluctuation of the oil connects with pany’s benefit directly. In the time of high oil price, how to reduce the oil cost by the integration measure, already e the tough task panies must to be up against.
First chapter the introduction of the analysis background、signification、and the status quo all around the world. Second chapter analyses the trend development of the shipping enterprises, the specific characteristics, chance and challenge. For the further study. The fluctuation of the international oil price brings great inflation to our domestic shipping enterprises. The oil fluctuation cycle model in chapter three can be used to forecast the oil price in the future. It is a good facility for pany to get ready for the price rising. So that they can face the challenge better.
In the chapter four, the author uses the cost control theory to analyze how we can be essful in the time of high oil price. In addition, the relation between the oil rise and the profit fall also is analyzed with qualitative and quantitative methods. The fifth chapter concludes a series of methods: cost control, financ