文档介绍：II 中国货币政策中介目标的选择史蓉菊 2005年4月摘要一个有效的货币政策操作框架其中介目标的选择是个重要的环节从理论和实践上看这一目标选择主要是在利率和货币供应量之间展开普尔基本分析证明了在目标产出方差最小化的前提下确定货币政策中介目标的一般决策规则即利率或货币供应量哪个更适合作为中介目标取决于一国经济波动的特定结构倘若经济波动的主要来源是货币需求方面应采用利率这一指标反之如果货币需求稳定面临的经济冲击主要是能源危机投资消费结构变化等实质性冲击此时应更多的采用货币供应量指标本文以该理论为基础对我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的合理性和效率性进行分析结果表明目前我国基础性冲击主要来自于商品市场并且货币供应量与真实GDP之间存在着长期均衡关系因此货币供应量作为中介目标具有理论上的合理性货币当局应该继续采取货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标但是合理性并不一定意味着效率性货币政策传导机制不完善货币流通速度的稳定性不足基础货币控制的僵化和变化无常货币乘数的不可控等使得货币供应量作为中介目标的效率性大打折扣本文通过granger因果检验对货币供应量的低效性进行证明在实证分析的基础上本文对上述问题的产生原因进行分析并对我国目前货币政策中介目标的选择提出相关建议关键词货币政策中介目标普尔基本分析协整检验granger因果检验 III The choice of intermediary target of ary policy in China Shi Rongju April 2005 Abstract For an effective framework of the ary policy operation, choosing the intermediary target is an important , there are two alternative indexes used as the intermediary target interest rate and money supply. Poole’s basic analysis has proved that on the premise of minimum variance of output, mon rule to ascertain whether interest rate or money supply should be the intermediary target lies on the specific structure of national economic fluctuation. If the main source of economic es from the money demand, interest rate target should be used. Alternatively, if money demand is stable, and the main sources for economic fluctuation are energy crises,the change ofinvestment structure or consumptionstructureand etc, using money supply as the target is a better choice. Based on the theory mentioned above, this dissertation tried to analyze the rationality and efficiency of money supply as intermediary target of ary policy in China. Currently, our country’s basic impulsions are mainly modity market, meanwhile a long-run equilibrium relationship between the money supply and real GDPexists. Therefore, it is rational for the money authoritycontinuing to carry out the money supply as the intermediary target. However, rationality does not lead to efficiency. Many factors decrease the efficiency of money supply as t