文档介绍：摘要

进入 21 世纪以来，国际油价的巨大波动对世界经济的发展产生了较大的影
响。随着我国经济的不断发展，对石油的进口量也在不断增大。把握国际油价与
我国石油供求的关系，并充分认识这种相互影响性，对新形势下制定我国能源策
略有重要的参考意义。
基于该问题，本文通过对国际油价波动的历史和现状的分析，总结出影响其
波动的三方面因素：供给因素、需求因素和短期因素。同时，在对我国石油供求
现状分析的基础上，用回归分析的方法，揭示了我国石油需求的影响因素，包括：
国民经济、产业结构和能源消费结构等；并指出影响供给的因素有石油资源的储
量、品质、勘探难度以及后备储备等。然后，从分析我国石油进口量与国内生产
总值和国际油价的相关性入手，运用单位根检验和协整检验，建立了三者相互影
响的数理模型，并做了格兰杰因果关系检验。在此基础上，本文还利用协整理论，
就国际油价波动对我国石油进口量的影响进行了实证分析，进而总结出油价波动
对我国石油需求的影响。在国际油价与我国石油需求的关系研究中，获得了一些
有价值的结果，但同时也得出国际油价与我国石油供给之间的影响关系并不显著
的结论。
针对实证分析所发现的问题，结合我国目前石油供求以及国际油价波动剧烈
的现状，提出了建立石油期货市场、完善国家石油储备体系、开发替代能源和广
泛开展国际能源合作等对策和建议。

关键词: 国际油价，石油供求，协整检验，格兰杰因果关系检验
Abstract
Since entering the 21st century,large fluctuations in international oil prices had a
great impact on the world the continuous development of China's
economy,oil import is also increasing. Grasping the relationship between international
oil prices and oil’s supply and demand,which has an important reference value on the
development of the new situation of China's energy strategy.
Based on the question mentioned before,besides,taking the current international
energy situation into consideration, some factors will be concluded. In this period,
analyzing on the characteristics of oil and using qualitative and quantitative method
will be ,from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative research
and proved the existence of a certain degree of correlation between them, employing
Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test, the relevance between the oil prices
and supply is going to be calculated . Based on the result, the mathematical model
about the relationship can be established, also, certain empirical analysis is needed.
Especially in study of the relationship between the international oil prices and
demand, we ge