文档介绍：CHAPTER 4
Foundations of Decision Making
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Learning Objectives
Describe the decision-making process
Analyze the rational decision-making model
Explain the limits of rationality
Learn how certainty, risk, and uncertainty relate to decision making
Discuss the bounded-rational decision maker
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郭志文 2001 Copyright
Learning Objectives
Identify the two types of decision problems and the two decisions that solve them
Learn how heuristics affect decision making
Identify four decision-making styles
Weigh the pros and cons of group decisions
Learn three ways to improve group decision making
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The Decision-Making Process
Identification
of a
Problem
Identification
of Decision
Criteria
Allocation
of Weights
to Criteria
Price
fort
Durability
Repair Record
Performance
Price
fort
Durability
Repair Record
Performance
10
8
6
4
2
I need to buy
a new car.
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Development
of
Alternatives
Analysis
of
Alternatives
Ford
Jeep
Mazda
Dodge
Audi
Isuzu
Chevy
Selection
of an
Alternative
Implementation
of the
Alternative
Appraisal of
Decision Results
fort
Durability
Repair Record
Performance
The Dodge
is the best.
Toyota
Chevy
Isuzu
Audi
Dodge
Mazda
Jeep
Ford
Toyota
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Problem
Clarity
Single
Goal
Known
Options
Clear
Preferences
Constant
Preferences
No
Constraints
Maximum
Payoff
Assumptions
of Rational
Decision
Making
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A Model of Bounded Rationality
Ascertain
the Need
for a Decision
Simplify
the Problem
Set
“Satisfying”
Criteria
Identify a
Limited Set
of Alternatives
Compare
Alternatives
Against Criteria
Expand
Search for
Alternatives
Select the
First “Good
Enough” Choice
A “Satisficing”
Alternative
Exists
Yes
No
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Escalation mitment
Representative
Heuristic
Availability
Heuristic
Common Errors in Decision Making
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