文档介绍：摘要随着国际大环境的影响和国内产业结构调整、西部大开发等都将对我国集装箱运输提出更多的要求,集装箱运输也将呈现持续快速发展的势头。随着集装箱运输业的高速发展,集装箱港口作为集装箱运输网络的重要组成部分也得到了长足的发展。随着我国经济的不断发展,中国国际、国内贸易量将会不断提高,集装箱运量,港口吞吐量也将迅猛增长。结合现有文献和课题,综合分析我国集装箱运输发展的国际国内环境和港口集装箱吞吐量快速发展的动力。主要分析我国集装箱运输发展的趋势,分别对港口发展现状、港口发展特点及集装箱集疏运现状进行详细阐述。采用外贸集装箱生成量预测方法和多种经济模型预测方法,在对我国集装箱生成量和港口集装箱吞吐量进行综合分析预测的基础上,提出发展对策及建议。制定政策则要依赖于对未来集装箱运输发展需求的预测和科学规划,“十一五”期间,随着国际大环境的影响和国内产业结构调整、西部大开发等都将对我国集装箱运输提出更高的要求,产生更大的需求,正确把握、判断、研究我国港口集装箱运输发展中出现的新情况、新问题,分析和预测其发展趋势,并采取正确的对策。关键词:港口:集装箱运输;预测分析英文摘要 Study onthePrediction Analysis on theDevelopment ofInternational Container Transportation Abstract The impact oftheinternational circumstance、the adjust of theindustrialstructure and theexploitation oftheWest,All require more about thecontainer transportation. The container transportation appe缸s the increase the development of containertransportation,Container port as the important part of the container work alsodevdoped thedevelopment ofnationaleconomy, international and domestic trade volume willincreasecontinuously,the container transportation volume and thethroughput ofthecontainer port willincrease apace. Based On existing literatureand discussion,the prehensive study On theinternationaland domestic circumstance of container transportation and the impetus ofdevelopment mainly analyses the trend of development ofcontainertransportation andparticularly expatiate on the status quo of theportandinlandtransport and thetraitofthedevelopment dissertation used kindsofprediction methods forecasting thethroughput ofcontainen Making policy depend on theforecasting and scientificlayout ofthe container ’transportation impact ofthe international circumstance、the adjust of theindustrial structure and theexploitation of theWest,All require more about the mustri鲈flygrasp、judge andstudy thenew instance and question,then analyses and forecastthetrendofthedevelopment,accordingly adopt the right policy, KeyW