文档介绍：河北工业大学工程硕士学位论文 i A 市大型过江通道工程施工风险评价摘要本文从工程施工风险分析的研究现状出发,对现有的工程风险管理基本原理进行总结,同时结合 A 市 WS 路过江通道南线工程实际情况,建立相应的风险分析与评价模型, 并应用于该工程。实现对该工程施工风险评价,同时也将为类似大型过江通道工程的施工风险评价提供参考及依据。所进行的研究内容及主要成果如下: 首先,考虑到该工程项目具有工程量大,结构复杂、地质条件复杂等特点,直接针对整个项目进行风险辨析,找出施工风险因素并进行量化,是非常困难的。因此,本文提出一种过江通道工程分部、分项的分解方式,将施工风险转化为由各子项工程的不确定性, 对工程项目各子项工程施工的风险进行辨识并量化,实现对整个项目进行风险辨识。其次,采用基于信心指数的专家调查法,借助专家的经验,通过会议,集思广益获取相关信息,对隧道的风险进行系统地讨论和分析;在此基础之上,采用风险矩阵法,依次列出风险清单,确定风险评估指标、每个风险因素的后果等级以及概率等级。将风险发生的概率等级和后果等级分别列在风险矩阵图中,二者的垂直坐标交点区域即为隧道的风险等级。最后,利用本文提出的风险评价模型,对 A 市 WS 路过江通道南线工程施工风险进行综合分析评估,得出了风险级别,并针对各风险点提出相应的风险对策。关键词:过江通道,风险辨析,风险评价,风险矩阵法 A市大型过江通道工程施工风险评价 ii THE RISK EVALUATION OF CROSS-RIVER PASSAGEWAYS PROJECT IN CITYA ABSTRACT This paper is based on the research status of the construction risk analysis, the basic principle of risk management are summarized. And Construction risk analysis and evaluation model is bining with the characte ristics of the cross-river passageways project. The risk evaluation of this engineering construc tion is realized, which will be very useful for other cross-river passageways projects. The contents and main results are as follows: Firstly, considering the quantity of this proj ect is big, complicated, plex geological conditions, etc. It is very difficult to find out the construction risk factors and quantitative for the whole project. So a kind of cross-river passa geways project division and partial position method is put forward in this paper, which transfor ms the risk of whole pr oject to the uncertainty of its items. The risk evaluation of the w hole engineering construction is realized. Secondly, Based on the confidence of the e xperts investigation, it access relevant information through the meeting and brainstorm wh ich discuss and analysis the risk of tunnel. On this basis, list the risk factors, determine the risk evaluation index and calculate the risk factors level and the consequences of probability level by risk matrix method. The level o