文档介绍：Chapter 12—Introduction to Statistical Inference 171
CHAPTER
Introduction to
12 Statistical Inference
Statistical Inference and Random Sampling
Summary and Conclusions
The usual goal of a statistical inference is a decision about
which of two or more hypotheses a person will thereafter
choose to believe and act upon. The strategy of such inference
is to consider the behavior of a given universe in terms of the
samples it is likely to produce, and if the observed sample is
not a likely e of sampling from that universe, we then
proceed as if the sample did not in e from that uni-
verse. (The previous sentence is a restatement in somewhat
different form of the core of statistical analysis.)
Statistical inference and random sampling
Continuity and sameness is the fundamental concept in infer-
ence in general, as discussed in Chapter 11. Random sampling
is the second great concept in inference, and it distinguishes
probabilistic statistical inference from non-statistical inference
as well as from non-probabilistic inference based on statisti-
cal data.
Let’s begin the discussion with a simple though unrealistic situ-
ation. Your friend Arista a) looks into a cardboard carton, b)
reaches in, c) pulls out her hand, and d) shows you a green
ball. What might you reasonably infer?
You might at least be fairly sure that the green ball came fr