文档介绍：Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2013, 2, 96-102
doi:.22014 Published Online April 2013 (rnal/)
Research and Application on prehensive
Evaluation Method for Hydrologic Forecast Model*
Junjie Song, Jianzhong Zhou#, Baowei Yan
School of Hydropower & Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan
Email: #jz.******@hust.
Received: Feb. 14th, 2013; revised: Feb. 27th, 2013; accepted: Mar. 11th, 2013
Copyright © 2013 Junjie Song et al. This is an open access article distributed under the mons Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract: According to accuracy, precision and reliability requirement of hydrological forecasting specifica-
tion, we use the prehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy set theory to quantitatively evaluate
the performance hydrological forecasting models. The study selected auto-regressive wavelet model, nearest
neighbor regressive wavelet model and mean generating function model of three gorges annual runoff fore-
cast as the study object, and built a multi-index evaluation system for hydrologic forecasting pre-
hensive evaluation. Set parabolic type membership function as the standardized method, on the basis of
maximum degree princ