文档介绍：硕士学位论文
. Thesis
The Impact on the Employment of Changing
in the Age Structure of Population
—An Empirical Analysis in Gansu
Province
Name:Niu Yonglu
西北师范大学
Northwest Normal University
中文摘要
甘肃省是西北第二人口大省,农村人口比重大,经济尚不发达。近年来,
甘肃省人口年龄结构发生了较大变化,劳动年龄人口和老年人口逐渐增加,少
年人口逐渐减少。劳动年龄人口的不断增多,为甘肃省提供了源源不断的劳动
力,但是劳动力素质总体不高,就业观念还不尽合理,劳动力需求量变动缓慢,
使得劳动力供求矛盾比较突出,存在一定的就业压力。
通过劳动年龄人口、劳动参与率和劳动力素质这三个指标,分析研究甘肃
省人口年龄结构变动对劳动力供给的影响;通过劳动力需求数量、专业技能劳
动力需求和三次产业劳动力需求量这三个指标,分析研究甘肃省人口年龄结构
变动对劳动力需求的影响。然后结合劳动力供给和需求状况,分析甘肃省的就
业市场现状。
根据甘肃省人口年龄结构和劳动力供求状况的历史变动情况的描述和分
析,在实证分析的基础上,对甘肃省未来 10 年的劳动力供给与需求情况分别作
出预测。
依照甘肃省封闭条件下劳动力供求量的预测结果,再结合甘肃省劳动力省
际流动情况来看,甘肃省在不考虑劳动力省际流动的情况下,未来 10 年劳动力
供求矛盾仍然紧张,劳动力供给一直大于需求,且供求缺口会越来越大,就业
形势严峻。但是考虑到劳动力省际流动的情况,劳动力供求的变动情况正好相
反,劳动力供给小于需求,且供求缺口会越来越小。甘肃省的就业问题从本质
上而言,不只是劳动力供求总量上的问题,更是劳动力素质和就业观念的问题。
建议甘肃省根据实际情况,稳定低生育水平,优化人口年龄结构;加强人
力资本投资建设,提高劳动力素质;完善劳动力市场制度,合理引导劳动力流
动;完善就业服务体系,拓宽就业渠道;加快产业结构合理调整,提供更多的
就业机会;积极发展老龄产业,带动就业。
关键词:人口年龄结构;劳动年龄人口;劳动参与率;就业弹性
III
Abstract
The total population of Gansu Province is the second most in north-west china,
the proportion of the population is very large in the rural areas. Gansu Province is
an economically underdeveloped area. Great changes on the age structure of the
population have taken place in Gansu Province in recent years, the working-age and
the elderly population have gradually increased, and the juvenile population have
gradually reduce. The working-age population increased continuously, provided a
significant proportion of the labor force. But the concept of employment is still
unreasonable, the overall quality of the labor is low. The labor demand have
changed slowly. So the contradiction between labor supply and dema nd is
prominent, and employment pressure still exist.
This paper used the three indicators of the working-age population, the labor
force participation rate and quality, analysised the changes in the age structure of the
population on the labor supply in Gansu Province; also used the