文档介绍：Global Trends 2030:
Alternative
Worlds
a publication of the National Intelligence Council
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a publication of the National Intelligence Council
december 2012
NIC 2012-001
ISBN 978-1-929667-21-5
To view electronic version:
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Dear Reader:
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence
Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous
editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and
potential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur
under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain.
Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity plexity of various factors has grown, we have
increased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might face.
We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures.
It is our contention that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an interplay
among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our effort is to encourage
decisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan for the long term so that
negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding.
I would like to point out several innovations in Global Trends 2030. This volume starts with a look
back at the four previous Global Trends reports. We were buoyed by the overall positive review in the
study missioned, but c