文档介绍：第 41 卷第 5 期浙江大学学报( 人文社会科学版) Vol. 41, No. 5
2011 年 9 月 Journal of Zhejiang University( Humanities and Social Sciences) Sep. 2011
DOI: 10. 3785/ j. issn. 1008
942X. 2011. 03. 091
主体行为、预期形成与房地产市场稳定
贺京同
徐
璐
( 南开大学经济研究所, 天津 300071)
[ 摘
要] 基于行为经济学理论, 对我国房地产市场主体的决策过程和市场运行机制进行理论及实证
研究后发现: 我国房地产市场主体行为受货币幻觉、过度信心、片面信息、供给垄断等行为因素的显著影
响, 从而不断推高房地产升值预期, 并在预期实现时得到进一步强化。这一正反馈过程导致升值预期持
续累积升高, 是我国房地产市场持续高速增长的重要动力。经测算, 房地产成交量中 43. 42% 的增长是由
上述行为因素引起的。对行为因素的忽视是近年来房地产调控政策收效甚微的根本原因。因而, 只有减
少各种片面信息的频繁发布, 改变地方政府对土地财政的直接依赖, 消除房地产商的供给垄断, 建立健全
的房地产市场化运行机制, 才能真正实现房地产市场稳定发展。
[ 关键词] 行为因素; 主体行为; 正反馈升值预期; 房地产市场稳定
Subject Behavior, Expectation Formation and Stability in Real Estate Market
H e Jing to ng
Xu Lu
( I nstitute of E conomics, N ankai Univer sity , T ianj in 300071, China)
Abstract: Based on the theory of behavioral economics, a study on market subject decision
making
process and operating mechanism of our real estate market is carried out theoretically and empirically.
The result show s that behaviors of government, real estate developers and residents are significantly af
fected by some behavior factors such as money illusion, overconfidence, one
sided information and mo
nopoly supply, w hich continue to push up the appreciation expectations of the real estate, and the behav
iors are streng thened when the ex es true. The appreciation expectation continues