文档介绍：Chapter 4 Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain
Supply Chain Management
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Learning Objectives
understand the role of forecasting in a supply chain;
identify ponents of a demand forecast;
forecast demand in a supply chain given historical demand data using time series methodologies;
analysis demand forecasts to estimate forecast error.
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Outline
The role of forecasting in a supply chain
Characteristics of ponents of forecasts and forecasting methods
Basic approach to demand forecasting
Time series forecasting methods
Measures of forecast error
Forecasting demand at
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Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain
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Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain
The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain
Used for both push and pull processes
Examples:
Production: scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning
Marketing: sales force allocation, promotions, new production introduction
Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning
Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
All of these decisions are interrelated
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Characteristics of Forecasts
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Characteristics of Forecasts
Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error.
Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts (forecast horizon is important)
Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts
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of a Forecasting and Forecasting Methods
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Forecasting Methods
Qualitative: primarily subjective; rely on judgment and opinion
Time Series: use historical demand only
Static
Adaptive
Causal: use the relationship between demand and some other factor to develop forecast
Simulation
Imitate consumer choices that give rise to demand
bine time series and causal methods
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Static
Adaptive
Moving average
Simple exponential smoothing
Holt’s model (with trend)
Winter’s model (with trend and seasonality)
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