文档介绍：上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
上海房地产业的发展规律与趋势探究
姓名:任朝辉
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:工商管理(MBA)
指导教师:顾孟迪

上海房地产业的发展规律与趋势探究
摘要
房地产业已成为上海的支柱产业和新的经济增长点对上海房
地产业的发展规律和趋势进行研究不仅仅是房地产市场化改革的需
要也是中国加入 WTO 后适应国际新形势和世界房地产发展潮流
的需要同时对规律的认识和趋势的探究也将为政府制定宏观调
控政策企业规避经营风险提供决策依据
本文首先从房地产周期的一般理论着手对经济周期的类型及
房地产周期各阶段的特征进行了描述并从统计学角度对上海房地
产业与宏观经济的相关性进行了分析然后在第三章中以房地产增
加值为样本数据用时间序列和扩散指数的方法分别从统计学和经
济学角度进行了分析并建立了相关数学模型提出了房地产增加值
变化规律的 S 曲线模型和其他数学模型
第四章从经济学的角度对上海房地产市场进行了供需关系的现
状分析并建立了供给和需求的宏观与微观数学模型在第五章中
介绍了房地产定量预测的各种方法并用时间序列的方法建立了房地
产增加值及其比重商品住宅的竣工面积销售面积年平均销售
价格的数学模型并给出了中短期的预测值
上海国际化大都市的发展趋势已经基本明确国外发达国家的
房地产业发展经验对上海房地产的发展具有重要的借鉴意义因此
本文在第六章中对其他国家或地区的房地产管理制度与近些年的发
展情况进行了概述最后一章对上海房地产业的发展提出了宏观政
策和微观操作上的诸项建议
关键词房地产周期房地产增加值数学模型时间序列
A RESEARCH ON PATTERNS AND TRENDS
OF REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY IN SHANGHAI

ABSTRACT
Nowadays real estate has e a backbone industry and new
economic growth point in shanghai. A research on patterns and trends of
Shanghai real estate industry is not only necessary for innovating real
estate market, but also is required to adapt new real estate developing
trends to the new international environment after China’s accession to the
WTO. Simultaneously, this study will also benefit the decision-making
process for the local government and enterprises, in terms of making new
policies and shifting away from potential risks.
In the first two chapters, this thesis reviews the general theory and
patterns. Based on this, some schematic descriptions about economic
cycle types and features of real estate tides and ebbs are illustrated.
Particularly, the author analyzes the correlation between the real estate
tides and ebbs and Shanghai macro-economic growth from the point view
of statistics.
In chapter three, value-added of real estate is selected as the
sampling objective variable, and time series and diffusion index methods
are applied to model its developing pattern. An S-shaped curve model is
established pared to other related models.
In chapte