文档介绍：宏观经济
Report | Macro Analysis
Fragmentation of Euro-Zone Financial Market
Regular Report
Ongoing
nd
13 Aug 2012 An Update on Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Development(2 Week Aug)
Key Data
USA The recently announced economic data showed that the Euro zone economic
% 11 12E growth has been in contraction. herland industrial outputs(IP) were down
GDP by % MoM, Italy and Germany IP were down by % and %, respectively.
CPI These drops were all greater than market expectations. Moreover, Italy 2Q GDP
Unemployment growth was disappointing, declined % QoQ. The lower than market expectation
Trade
- -
balance/GDP economic data testified our estimate that euro zone economy would go into
Fiscal recession in 2Q, and this trend would continue in 3Q.
- -
balance/GDP
Policy rate Various market segments appeared differentiated between core and peripheral
Dollar Index countries, which has been an impediment of the influence of ary policies.
Eurozone The ECB has recently showed the significant differences of large loan rates to
% 11 12E non-financial corporations between core and peripheral countries.
GDP -
CPI
Unemployment Although the ECB official Noyer stated that the ECB will maintain the stability of
Trade euro, the market was not sensitive to the remarks, but looking for the enforceable
- -
balance/GDP measures and actions. The market has taken profits which resulted in recent rise,
Fiscal
- - euro exchange rate has declined. On the one hand, this was due to the better than
balance/GDP expected . non-farm payroll, on the other hand, it was also due to the lack of
Policy rate 1 1 confidence to solve the crisis. Notably, any bad news may make the market to
Euro/USD
deteriorate.
Source: Bloomberg, China Merchants After promise of the Greek government about def