文档介绍：ARIMA模型在东莞市细菌性痢疾预测中的应用
张泽武,卢展鹏,曾耀明,钟新光
【摘要】目的探讨ARIMA模型在东莞市细菌性痢疾发病预测的可行性和适用性,为东莞市细菌性痢疾的防控提供参考依据。~2012年4月东莞市细菌性痢疾发病率资料拟合ARIMA模型,利用所得到的模型对东莞市2012年5月~7月细菌性痢疾发病率进行预测评价。结果ARIMA(1,0,0)%,实际值都在95%可信区间内,实际值与预测值变动趋势一致。结论ARIMA(1,0,0)模型较好的反映了东莞市细菌性痢疾发病趋势,可作为东莞市细菌性痢疾发病水平短期预测模型。
【关键词】细菌性痢疾;ARIMA模型;预测
Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan
ZHANG Ze-wu, LU Zhan-peng, ZENG Yao-min, ZHONG Xin- for Disease Control and Prevention of Dongguan city,Dongguan 523129,Guangdong province, China.
【Abstract】Objective To explore the feasibility of the application of Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model to forecast the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city, and to provide basis for prevention and was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city, from January 2005 to April 2012. Then the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of dysentery from May to Junly in 2012,and the forecast result pared with the actual The model of the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Dongguan city was ARIMA(1,0,0).The forecast monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery from May to Junly in 2012 consisted with the actual one, the relative er