人民币汇率改革的经济效应分析.pdf

文档介绍：人民币汇率改革的经济效应分析
谭小芬
(中央财经大学国际金融研究中心 100081)
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【内容摘要】从长期来看,人民币汇率改革对于中国的宏观经济运行、微观主体运营和金融市场发展都将
产生十分深远的影响。但在短期内,情形则较为复杂。从宏观层面看,汇率改革有助于减少贸易失衡和调
整国际收支,提高中国货币政策的独立性,但是由于持续的升值预期导致的大规模资本流入,会影响到经
济金融的稳定性。从微观层面看,汇率弹性增强使企业和金融机构面临的外汇风险上升,对纺织业等劳动
密集型行业产生了比较明显的冲击,但同时也有利于培育企业和金融机构的风险管理能力。从市场层面看,
汇率改革推动了外汇市场发展和资本账户开放。为降低汇率改革给中国经济金融带来的风险,我们提出了
相应的政策建议和配套改革措施。
【关键词】汇率改革人民币升值经济效应
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The Economic Effects of RMB Exchange Rate Reform
Tan Xiaofen
Central University of Finance and Economics, School of Finance, 100081
Abstract: In the long run, RMB exchange rate system reform has been essential for Chinese
macro-economy, micro-operation and the development of the financial markets. But in the short
term, the situation is plicated. From the macro perspective, The Effect of the exchange
rate reform on reducing trade imbalance and balance of payments is not obvious, the continued
appreciation of RMB leads to large-scale capital inflows and threaten to the macroeconomic
stability and financial stability. At the micro-level, the appreciation of the RMB has a remarkable
impact on the textiles industry and little impact on the FDI investment, non-tradable goods sector
benefited from the appreciation of the RMB, which is conducive to the change of Chinese
export-oriented economy. From a market per