文档介绍：华中科技大学硕士学位论文 I摘要随着我国西部经济的迅速发展和山区高等级公路的大量兴建,工程建设中遇到了越来越多的顺层岩体边坡的稳定性问题。由于岩土体的非均质性和复杂性使边坡稳定性分析中存在着不确定性,这种不确定性包含了随机性和模糊性两种属性。而通常采用的安全系数法,直接将各项指标和参数平均化以求得边坡的安全系数,忽略了岩土工程中存在的各种不确定因素。因此,如何有效考虑这些不确定性对判断边坡的稳定性具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文采用理论分析和数值模拟的方法,结合沪蓉西高速公路边坡工程研究课题,对顺层岩体边坡稳定的模糊可靠度进行研究。首先,回顾了国内外在边坡稳定性和可靠度理论等方面的研究现状,重点介绍了可靠度基本理论和模糊可靠度基本理论及可靠度指标的计算方法。其次,探讨了蒙特卡洛法在边坡稳定性分析中的应用,建立了边坡失稳的功能函数和力学模型,针对具体工程实例进行随机可靠度分析,并讨论了模拟次数不同对可靠度的影响和岩体力学参数的概率密度分布对计算结果的影响。第三,根据顺层岩体边坡的特点,建立了以极限平衡为基础的功能函数和模糊可靠度计算方法,并计算各滑面的模糊可靠度。最后,在原有的模糊可靠度理论的基础上,提出了将蒙特卡洛法应用于模糊可靠度计算方法中,为研究边坡稳定性提供了一种新的思路。计算分析表明:采用基于蒙特卡洛法的模糊可靠度方法计算的模糊可靠度小于传统的模糊可靠度,且其值均小于随机可靠度,说明传统的随机可靠度偏于不安全。采用基于蒙特卡洛的模糊可靠度法考虑了岩体参数的模糊性和模糊失效准则,从而能较为真实的反映实际情况,其计算结果能用于工程的前期判断,对指导现场施工和设计具有重要意义。关键词:模糊可靠度;边坡稳定性;顺层岩体;随机性;模糊性;蒙特卡洛法华中科技大学硕士学位论文 IIAbstract With the rapid economical development of the western part of China and the large-scale construction of mountain expressway, more and more stability problems of bedding rock slope in engineering construction have been met. Because of the heterogeneity plexity of rock and soil, there are many uncertainties which exist in the slope stability analysis, including randomness and fuzziness. The safety factor method is usually used to determine the factor of safety of the slope. The uncertainty and the variability in geotechnical engineering are ignored through simply averaging relevant index and parameters. Therefore, how to effectively considerate these uncertainties on the judgment of the slope stability have theoretical and practical significance. Combining with slope project topic of Shanghai to Chengdu expressway, the theoretical and the numerical simulation methods is used to study the fuzzy reliability of bedding rock slope in this paper. Firstly, the existing domestic and foreign research status of slope stability and reliability theory is briefly reviewed. Several theories and methods, such as the reliability elementary theory, the fuzzy reliability elementary theory, and the calculation method of their index, are de