文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
中国经济增长与石油消费的相互影响及协整关系
姓名:闵娜
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:数量经济学
指导教师:周少甫
20050509
摘要

近年来随着中国国民经济持续快速增长拉动能源特别是石油消费需求迅速
增加
本文从多个角度研究了中国经济增长与石油消费量以及石油价格之间的相互影
响案例分析了石油危机对各国经济增长的冲击定性研究了中国经济与石油消费
和石油价格发展现状以及未来发展趋势定量分析了国民经济各部门石油消费量变
化使用了弹性系数法回归分析等方法研究了影响中国石油消费的主要经济因素
包括国民经济增长国家产业发展政策和产业结构演变能源消费结构变化人
口数量及结构变动交通运输业的发展趋势家庭汽车拥有量等采用线性回归和
自回归模型对未来中国石油消费量进行了预测并综合分析了影响近期国际油价上
涨的经济因素以及油价上涨对我国经济的影响
实证研究部分对中国经济增长以为代表与石油等能源消费量进行了协
整检验和因果关系检验并建立了模型结果表明两者之间存在显
著的协整关系并且经济增长单向导致石油消费量的增长因此目的在于提高经
济效率的经济改革和产业结构调整可提高石油利用效率而且为实现可持续发展
战略应当加大替代石油工作的力度
最后对未来中国经济与石油消费做出了前景展望和战略性建议

关键词经济增长石油消费石油价格协整检验
Abstract

In recent years with the rapid economic growth in China energy consumption
especially the oil consumption and request was increasing heavily.
In this paper the research on the interference between economic growth and oil
consumption oil price in China from several angles was propounded. The impact from oil
crisis to different countries was analyzed in cases qualitative research was done on the
actuality and future trend of economy and oil consumption quantitative analysis was
used in the variation of oil consumption in national economic departments the economic
influential factors of the oil consumption was analyzed by using the method of elastic
modulus and regression the factors included economic growth the expansionary policy of
national industry the structure of energy consumption the population size and structure
change the developing trend of traffic transport industry family saloon availability and so
on the future oil consumption was forecasted by using the linear regression and
auto-regression models the economic influential factors of the increasing international
oil price recently and its influences on our economy were also expounded. The empirical
research on the relationship between economic growth (GDP) and oil consumption in
China was done by using the Co-integration test and Granger Causa