文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
湖北省二氧化碳排放的驱动因素研究
姓名:陈兰
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:劳动经济学
指导教师:李卫兵
2010-05-15
华中科技大学硕士学位论文
摘要
科学界已经对全球变暖达成共识,在此背景下,为了给湖北省节能减排政策的
制定提供有效的理论支持和必要的应对措施,本文对湖北省二氧化碳排放的驱动因
素进行研究。采用 STIRPAT 模型并对其进行拓展,利用湖北省 1990 年至 2008 年的
二氧化碳排放量及各种可能的驱动因素指标时间序列数据做了实证分析,得出了湖
北省碳排放驱动因素方程。考察了人口数量、富裕度、城市化、二次产业和三次产
业占总产出比重以及能源强度等因素对湖北省二氧化碳排放量的影响程度。研究结
果表明:人口数量对湖北省二氧化碳排放量影响显著,且碳排放人口弹性明显大于
单位强度。富裕程度和能源强度也是显著影响湖北省二氧化碳排放量的原因,产业
结构中第二次产业发展会对碳排放造成影响,而第三次产业和城市化水平则不是湖
北省碳排放的驱动因素。湖北省碳排放和经济发展水平的关系不符合 EKC 曲线。本
文还针对研究结果提出了相应的湖北省碳减排的政策措施,优化能源结构、降低能
源强度和开发新能源将是十分有效的能源措施,而优化产业结构、增加碳汇和相关
法规的完善都是湖北省必须做出的努力。

关键词:碳排放湖北省 STIRPAT模型能源强度产业结构
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华中科技大学硕士学位论文
Abstract
The munity has mon idea on global warming. In this
context, in order to provide strong theoretical support and necessary responses to the
policy of energy conservation and emission in Hubei Province, this paper made research
on the driving factors of Carbon dioxide emissions in Hubei Province. This research
employed the STIRPAT model and made necessary model expanding, using the time series
of carbon dioxide emissions and other possible driving factors of Hubei Province from
1990 to 2008 to do empirical analysis, and finally got the equation of driving factors of
carbon dioxide emission in Hubei Province. The paper investigated the impact of factors
on Carbon dioxide emissions in Hubei Province. The factors include the population,
opulence, urbanization, the proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry to total
output, energy intensity and so on. The results show that the population has significant
effect on Carbon dioxide emissions, and the Carbon emissions of the population elastic is
obviously larger than unit strength. Opulence and energy intensity also have remarkable
effect on Carbon dioxide emissions of Hubei Province. In industrial structure, the
development of secondary industry has impact on Carbon dioxide emissions, but the
tertiary industry and the urbanization are