文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
中国改革开放以来剩余劳动力转移——基于托达罗模型的分析
姓名:郁阳秋
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:西方经济学
指导教师:姚遂
20050428
摘要
农业剩余劳动力是指可以从农业部门撤出而不影响农业总产量的农业劳动人
口农业劳动力不断地从农业部门转向工业和服务业部门是各国工业化进程中的
必然现象如果这种转移受到阻碍会影响一国的经济发展这对人口众多的发展
中国家更是如此我国就是一个发展中的人口大国农业农民农村问题是我国
的基本问题而农业和农民问题最根本的又是农业剩余劳动力的转移问题
在综合分析发展经济学中四个经典模型刘易斯模型费景汉拉尼斯模型
乔根森模型及托达罗模型的基础上本文借鉴了美国和日本实现剩余劳动力转移的
成功经验回顾了我国改革开放以来剩余劳动力的历程分析了我国剩余劳动力产
生及转移的原因解释了剩余劳动力转移的必然性及对我国经济发展的影响针对
我国目前出现的农村剩余劳动力大量存在与城市劳动力紧缺并存的问题本文在利
用经典的人口流动模型托达罗模型的基础上根据数据利用回归分析了影响我
国农业剩余劳动力转移的各种因素从而对目前的民工荒现象提出了一些解释
在计量分析的基础上本文提出了若干实现其转移的建议如提高民工工资
实现产业梯度转移希望能为我国的农业剩余劳动力的转移提供有用参考缓解目
前出现的劳动力短缺

关键词农业剩余劳动力托达罗模型民工荒
I
Abstract
The agricultural surplus labor is referred to those agricultural labors that can be
retreated from agriculture but with no effect on the gross product of it. With the increase
of rural labors and the improvement of agricultural labor productivity, the agricultural
surplus labor will turn from agricultural departments to industrial and service
departments, which is a sure phenomenon. If this transfer is hankered back, national
economics would be impacted, which is much like this for a developing country with
dense population. Our country is a developing one with very large population, and more
than half of people are peasants. The vital problem of Chinese agricultural and peasants
is how to deal with our rural surplus labor.
Base on synthesize analyzing of four classic models in develop economics, Lewis
Model, Fei and Ranis Model, Jorgenson Model and Todaro Model , the article draws
lessons from United States and Japans to carry out the essful experience of rural
surplus labor transferring, looks back the process of rural surplus labor force since reform
and opening up, analyzes the reason of labor force creation and transfer, explains the
inevitability of rural surplus labor force to transfer and influence of economic
development to our country. Aiming at the problem of co-existence of rural surplus l