文档介绍：华中科技大学硕士学位论文
摘要
随着我国社会老龄化进程的加快,国家和社会将面临日益沉重的社会养老压力,
而我国现阶段社会养老保障体系尚不健全,因此急需多方拓宽途径,弥补现有社会养
老功能的严重不足。住房反向抵押贷款是国外正在积极探索开展的一种“以房养老”
的金融产品,较好解决了部分老年人的养老困难。我国也正在开展这方面的研究与实
践,准备引入此项新型金融产品。但是在具体推行过程中,面临较多还待解决的问题
和障碍,其中住房反向抵押贷款的风险识别与防范就是开展住宅反向抵押贷款业务应
该重点考虑的问题之一。
论文通过对住宅反向抵押贷款理论的研究,分析了反向抵押贷款的概念特征、支
付方式和运作流程;进行了反向抵押贷款的风险识别,对预期寿命风险、贷款利率风
险和房屋价值风险等影响因素进行了分析;针对道德风险,通过建立借款人的效益最
大化函数,解决借款人与贷款人维修费用博弈的问题。
构建了住宅反向抵押贷款中寿命风险、利率风险和房屋价值风险的预测模型,并
以上海 65 岁老年人开展反向抵押贷款为例,运用 SPSS、Matlab 等软件对未来上海反
向抵押贷款利率、房屋价值变化趋势进行了预测。在此基础上,建立了住宅反向抵押
贷款一次性支付和年金支付形式的定价模型。
基于定价模型对反向抵押贷款风险进行了分析,并引入模糊熵理论,构建了反向
抵押贷款风险度模型。
最后,通过对住宅反向抵押贷款风险分析,提出了我国开展住宅反向抵押贷款风
险管理的一些具体措施和建议。
关键词:住宅反向抵押贷款风险识别评价风险度防范
I
华中科技大学硕士学位论文
Abstract
With aging of population, our country faced heavy pressure of economy. For the
insufficiency of social security system for the aged, it needed to discover new ways to solve
the problem. Housing reverse mortgage loan is a kind of financial products to help the old
people transform value of housing for money, which is developing quickly in some foreign
countries. Therefore, it is considered to introduce to our country. But there are lots of
problems to develop this financial product. Risk of housing reverse mortgage loan is one of
the most important facts to consider.
In this paper, the theory of reverse mortgage was discussed. The concept,
characteristics, payment and operation of reverse mortgage were analyzed. Risk of reverse
mortgage was identified and the factors of life expectation, rate and housing value were
analyzed. Benefits maximization function for borrower was set to solve the problem of
housing maintenance costs between borrower and loaner with game theory.
Risk forecast models for life expectation, rate and housing value were set up. It also
took a case of reverse mortgage in Shanghai for example to forecast the rate and housing
value change with SPSS and Matlab software. Furthermore, pricing models of amount
payment a