文档介绍：
Using CA-Markov Models to Simulate the Land-use
Changes in Pudong New Area, Shanghai City#
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(1. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433;
2. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092;
3. Shanghai Investigation Design & Research Institute, Shanghai, 200434)
Abstract: In recent years, much attention has been paid to land-use change simulations for the sake of
better displaying the mechanism of land-use change and making out relevant policies. While
CA-Markov model is a robust approach in spatial and temporal dynamic modeling of land use/cover
changes because geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data can be efficiently
incorporated. In this paper, geographical environment factors as well as social-economic factors are
combined with land-use current situation data over the past one decade to simulate the future land use
patterns of Pudong New Area, Shanghai city. As a newly well-developed district in Shanghai, Pudong
New Area is experiencing an increase in both population and built-up areas, which intensify the
contradictions of all kinds of land use. CA-Markov model is introduced to simulate the land use
changes of the city. After determined the parameter, transformation rules and correcting process of the
model, it is applied to the simulation and prediction of Pudong New Area. The good simulation results
demonstrate the feasibility of our model, which can reflect the characteristics of the Land use Policy in
past years, and guarantee appropriate deployment of the urban land. Moreover, we further used the
established CA-Markov model to simulate the land use situation in 2012 and 2018, and therefore
provide a reference and solution to sustainable development in the study area.
Key words: GIS; CA-Markov; Land use; Shanghai
0 Introduction
The world, especially developing countries are undergoing ra