文档介绍：山西财经大学
硕士学位论文
中国货币供应与经济增长关系的实证研究
姓名:罗艳虹
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:雷钦礼
2005-04
摘要
货币因素在经济增长中的作用,是货币经济增长理论产生以来,理论界关
注的焦点之一。在货币经济理论产生以前的实物经济增长理论中,往往只有实
物资产一种形式,而完全排除了货币金融资产。为了弥补经济增长理论的这一
缺陷,西方经济学界出现了货币经济增长理论,该理论认为,在经济增长过程
中,货币是非中性的,货币的引入会改变均衡增长路径;一旦货币收入对人们
的消费和储蓄产生持久性的影响,货币供应这一短期经济变量就会对长期经济
增长产生实质性的作用。
国内外理论界,对货币供应和经济增长之间的关系长期存在着不同观点。
本文在总结中西方经济学界对这个问题的研究成果基础上,首先分析了货币供应
的内生性与外生性,其次运用计量经济学中的协整理论对我国货币供应与经济增
长的关系进行了实证研究,建立了向量误差修正模型,并且分析了二者之间的因果
关系。最后给出了货币供应量增长率的合理目标区间。
本文共分五章。第一章,构建理论分析框架,阐述了有关此问题的不同理论。
第二章,简要阐述了中外经济学界对于货币供应与经济增长的研究成果。第三章,
对我国货币供应与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。第四章,在上述分析的基础上,
本文提出了经济增长中的货币供应建议,即实行单一规则下的货币目标区间控
制。第五章,结论。
关键字:货币供应,经济增长,货币政策,向量自回归,格兰杰因果检验

III
ABSTRACT
The relationship between money factor and economic growth is considered as
one of the most challenging subjects in contemporary economics. There is only one
form of all assets before ary theory generated. In order pensate the flaw,
some of economists raise the ary theory of economic growth. They regard that
during the course of economic growth,money be able to affect the degree of
economic growth once the e of money eventually influences consume and
saving.
In the economical theory field of our country and abroad, there are different
ideas. By summarizing western and Chinese economists’ academic achievements on
the series of issue, this paper discusses the exogeneity and endogenesis of money
supply, then based upon cointegration theory, empirically discusses the ralationship
between money supply and economic growth, constructs Vector Error Correction
Model, and deals with the causality between them, finally gives a reasonable objective
scope that the increase rate of money supply ought to be confined to.
This thesis contains five chapters: the first part of the article is theoretical
analysis framework, which includes different theories on this issue. Chapter 2 briefly
introduces achievements acquired by foreign and Chinese economists. Chapter 3, the
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