文档介绍：首都经济贸易大学
硕士学位论文
我国外汇储备适度规模的实证研究
姓名:苏旸
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:统计学
指导教师:刘黎明
20100312
首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文论文题目《我国外汇储备适度规模的实证研究》
论文提要
外汇储备对于一个经济开放体而言十分重要,它是平衡国际收支、举借和偿还外债、
干预外汇市场、维持汇率稳定的重要保障。适度的储备计划是一个国家或地区货币政策
的重要组成部分,与宏观经济状况密切相关。本文针对近年来我国外汇储备持续迅猛增
长的现象,以我国外汇储备的规模问题为研究对象,结合经济学的经典理论和统计学的
研究方法,对我国外汇储备的适度规模进行深入研究。
本文采用静态分析和动态分析相结合的研究方法:静态分析立足于经济学中的需求
理论与成本收益理论,分别构建我国外汇储备规模的下限模型和上限模型,由此得到我
国外汇储备适度规模的目标区间;动态分析法立足于统计学的协整理论,建立我国外汇
储备的需求模型,并在此基础上建立动态调整模型,计算动态调整速度系数。两种不同
思路的研究方法得到了大致相同的结论:即自 1994 年外汇体制改革,我国外汇储备的
规模在大多数年份是合理的,但从 2006 年起,出现了增长过快的现象。
本文摒弃传统的根据成本收益理论于 MR = MC 处寻找均衡值的做法,转而利用
TR = TC 寻求最大值,将外汇储备的规模放入区间进行研究,并构建动态调整模型估算
适度值以进行比较,且在实证计算时将近年来美元持续贬值这一因素考虑在内,使结论
更加具有现实意义。

关键字:外汇储备适度目标区间动态调整模型
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首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文论文题目《我国外汇储备适度规模的实证研究》
ABSTRACT
For a country of economic openness, foreign exchange reserves is significant, which is
the balance of international payments, the security of borrowing and repayment of foreign
debts, the means of intervening in the foreign exchange market, and the important guarantee
for maintaining exchange rate stability. A reasonable reserves scheme is an important
component of ary policy for a country or region. In this paper, for the phenomenon of
sustained rapid growth to the size of China's foreign exchange reserves, we research the
reasonable size of China's foreign exchange reserves, combined with the classical theory of
economics and statistical research methods.
In this paper, we select the research methods of bination of static analysis and
dynamic analysis. The static analysis, based on the economics of the demand theory and the
cost-benefit theory, tries to build a reasonable size’s target range of China's foreign exchange
reserves. The dynamic analysis, based on the cointegration theory, tries to build the demand
model and dynamic adjustment model of China's foreign exchange reserves, and to calculate
the Dynamic adjustment speed coefficient. Two different methods obtain on