文档介绍：CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: A SIMULATION STUDY
Working Paper FNU-31
Jacqueline M. Hamiltona, David J. Maddisonb,c and Richard . Tola,d,e
a Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
b Economics Institute, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
c Centre for Cultural Economics and Management, London, UK
d Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, herlands
e Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Contact for correspondence:
Jacqueline M. Hamilton
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change
Centre for Marine and Climate Research
University of Hamburg
Troplowitzstr. 7
22529 Hamburg
Germany
Telephone: 0049 40 42838 7047
Fax: 0049 40 42838 7009
Email: ******@
Abstract
The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in
tourism demand. Here a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that
gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on
departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and
departures through changes in population, per capita e and climate change are analysed.
In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however the growth from climate change is
smaller than for population and e changes.
Key words
Tourism demand, climate change, global model
JEL Classification
L83, Q25
Acknowledgements
The CEC DG Research through the DINAS-Coast project (EVK2-2000-22024), the US
National Science Foundation through the Center for Integrated Study of the Human
Dimensions of Global Change (SBR-9521914) and the Michael Otto Foundation for
Environmental Protection provided e financial support. All errors and opinions are
ours.
1. Introduction
Tou