文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
我国国际短期资本流动的影响因素研究
姓名:谭力
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:金融学
指导教师:周云
2010-05-14
摘要
随着我国金融开放力度的加大,国际短期资本流动规模已超过直接投资,成为
我国金融和资本项目下资本流动的主要形式之一,呈现出高流动性、逐利性、流向
不易跟踪等特点,对我国国民经济发展和金融安全产生重大隐患,而我国金融市场
尚不完善,监管体系尚不健全,因此,对国际短期资本流动的影响因素的研究具有
重要的现实意义。
本文在以往国内外学者研究成果的基础上,重点对我国国际短期资本流动的规
模、途径以及影响因素作了详细阐述,在对影响因素的分析中,除了考察国内外经
典文献中常用的经济增长率、利率差和汇率外,还加入了股票市场收益率和房地产
价格指数这两个指标。通过建立我国国际短期资本流动的协整方程,基于 1997 年至
2009 年年度数据,对各影响因素进行计量分析,结果表明利率差、经济增长率、汇
率、股票市场收益率、房地产价格指数均对我国国际短期资本流动有显著影响。与
以往部分学者研究结论不同的是,实际利率差这个因素对中国国际短期资本流动的
解释力度并未减弱,仍然有显著的影响,可能与中国实行相对固定的汇率制度和利
率市场化程度不高有关。
最后,从本文研究的影响因素的角度,提出健全我国股票市场和房地产市场运
行机制、提高我衡的发展战略等有针对性的政策建
议。

关键字:国际短期资本流动利率汇率 GDP增长率

I
Abstract
With the increasing openness of China's financial, the international short-term capital
flows (SCF) has exceeded the direct investment, ing one of the major means of
capital flows with characteristics as high liquidity, chasing profit, and difficult to track,
and it has e a significant risk of China’s financial security. At present, the Chinese
financial market is imperfect, and its regulatory system is not sound, thus a study on
factors of international short-term capital flows into China has important practical
significance.
This paper based on the study of the past scholars analyzes China’s status of
international short-term capital flows. The stock market returns and real estate price index
of these two indicators has been joined into analysis in addition to the GDP growth rate,
the interest rate difference and the exchange rates of these three monly used
by classic literature. Through the establishment of cointegration equation on international
short-term flows, all factors are quantitatively analyzed based on the annual data from
1997 to 2009. The results show that the interest rate difference, the GDP growth rate, the
exchange rates, the stock market returns, the real estate price index have significant effects
on international short-term c