文档介绍：首都经济贸易大学
硕士学位论文
大型商场火灾疏散中人的可靠性研究
姓名:王文德
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:安全技术及工程
指导教师:郭建中
20090515
首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文《大型商场火灾疏散人的可靠性研究》
摘要
近年来我国一些大型商场多次发生群死群伤的重特大火灾事故。在商场火灾疏散
中,人的失误是造成商场火灾疏散中人员伤亡的原因之一。为减少商场火灾疏散中人
员的伤亡,有必要研究事故中人的可靠性。本文首先介绍了大型商场火灾中人的行为
特点与影响因素。研究结果表明,火灾中人的行为因素太复杂,人的行为难以用简单
的数学模型表示,于是在本文中应用主成分法、因子分析法对大型商场火灾事故中人
行为形成主因子进行了辨识,得出了大型商场火灾中人的行为主要与六个基本因子有
关。
其次论文根据影响人行为的因素,建立了大型商场火灾中人的行为可靠性评价的
指标体系。讨论了指标体系的量化方法,得出在大型商场火灾中采用集值统计理论确
定比较合理,它既可体现专家的经验与判断,又能接近实际。接着又讨论了指标权值
的处理方法,在分析了现有指标权值处理方法优缺点的基础上,应用主成分分析方法
解决了建筑物火灾疏散中人的行为评价指标的权值。建立了建筑物火灾中人的行为可
靠性的模型和计算方法。最后结合一商场讨论了该方法的应用。
关键词: 人的可靠性分析火灾疏散主成分分析法

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首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文《大型商场火灾疏散人的可靠性研究》
Abstract
In recent years, Serious conflagration accidents involving significant loss of life often
occur in large marketplaces in our country. Human error is a important reason that make
occupant casualty in fire evacuation of large marketplaces. It is a important to study human
reliability for decreasing occupant casualty in fire evacuation. This thesis introduction
characteristic of human behavior and influencing factors of in large marketplaces. It is
proved that human behavior is difficultly expressed with a mathematics model due to the
complex influenced factors. So human behavior's key performance shaping factors are
recognized by ponents analysis and factor analysis, achieve the result that
human behavior related six basic factor.
Secondly index system of assessing human behavior reliability in in large
marketplaces fire is established by the principle of human behavior and factors that
affected human behavior. Then method of quantifying index system was discussed and
achieved it is reasonable to quantity by the set-valued statistics, because this method
involve with the specialist experience and opinion, and is close to reality. Then the order
preference by similarity to consistency of uncertainty Analytic Hierarchy