文档介绍：本科毕业论文(设计) (2014 届) 条件概率及其应用院系数学与统计学院专业数学与应用数学姓名冯杰指导教师孙晓玲职称副教授学号: 1207210091 摘要条件概率是概率论中的一个重要而实用的概念, ,研究条件概率的概念、性质以及相关的四个公式( 条件概率公式、乘法公式、全概率公式、贝叶斯公式) 的基本计算方法, 并研究全概率公式以及贝叶斯公式在实际生活中的应用. 通过本课题的研究, 可了解抽签问题和风险决策问题中全概率公式和贝叶斯公式的应用. 了解应用条件概率方法可以使实际生活中的问题转变为相关概率计算, 让问题解决过程变得简洁, 清晰. 因此, 研究条件概率及其应用有着极其重要的意义. 关键词:条件概率;全概率公式;贝叶斯公式;风险决策 ABSTRACT Conditional probability is an important and useful concepts in probability theory, play a connecting role in probability theory system. So in this paper, the conditional probability and its application as the research subject, research condition probability concept, character and correlation of four formula (conditional probability formula, multiplication formula, the formula of total probability, the Bias formula) the basic calculation methods, application and study the full probability formula and Bias formula in practical life. Through the study of this subject, can understand the application of ballot problem and risk decision making problem in the whole probability formula and Bias formula. The probabilistic method to understand the application conditions can make real life problems into the relevant probability calculation so, problem solving process more concise, clear. Therefore, there is an extremely important significance of conditional probability and Its Applications . Key words : conditional probability ;c omplet e probability formula ; Bayes formula ; Risk decision 目录摘要................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................... II 1引言................................................................................................................ 1 2条件概率的概念及重要公式........................................................................ 1 条件概率概念及性质..............................................................................