文档介绍：Session 18 运筹学Operations Research 18-1
管理运筹学 Management Operations Research 管理运筹学 Management18 OperationsForecasting Research
18 Forecasting
Inventory Theory, was concerned with
finding optimal inventory
policies are , in part ,dependent upon some
forecast of sales or use of the items of
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© 1 interest. Forecasting is an essential© 2
管理运筹学 Management18 OperationsForecasting Research 管理运筹学 Management18 OperationsForecasting Research
Two distinct quantitative techniques Judgmental Techniques
based on conventional statistical methods are
Judgmental techniques are,by their very
used in forecasting, namely, time series
nature, subjective, and they may involve such
analysis and regression analysis. A statistical
qualities as intuition, expert opinion, and
time series is a series of numerical values that
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a random variable takes on over a period of© 3 © 4
管理运筹学 Judgmental Operations Techniques Research 管理运筹学 Judgmental Operations Techniques Research
monly used technique is the expert group
technique. Perhaps the most important judgmental The Delphi method begins with the
technique is called the Delphi method. Like the expert group
panel of experts filling out a
technique, the Delphi method utilizes a group of experts, but
not in a meeting setting. upon the results,a
second questionnaire is developed and sent
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