文档介绍：国防科学技术大学
硕士学位论文
战术后勤保障的需求预测与能力评估研究
姓名:焦军
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:项目管理
指导教师:涂丹
2010-11
国防科学技术大学研究生院工程硕士学位论文
摘要
战术后勤保障面临准备时限短,任务多变等矛盾,本文运用数学方法,利用
定量分析技术来减少保障过程中的“突然性”和“不确定性”,对“信息化”后
勤保障的建设具有重要的现实意义。
论文通过研究战术后勤保障工作的现状,总结出制约战术后勤保障的主要因
素,提出了保障决策的需求预测和能力评估的必要性。本文将需求预测区分为线
性需求预测和随机需求预测,侧重探讨随机需求预测定量分析过程和灰色预测模
型建立;将能力评估区分为管理能力评估和保障能力评估,利用模糊综合评估理
论对评估指标体系、确定指标权重、量化指标评语、测算评估等方面进行了较为
全面地阐述。结合实例,验证了战术后勤的需求预测和能力评估数学模型的有效
性。
本论文研究结果对于战术后勤保障预测和评估具有指导和借鉴作用。

主题词:战术后勤需求预测能力评估灰色预测理论模糊综合评估
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国防科学技术大学研究生院工程硕士学位论文
ABSTRACT
There is a contradiction between lacking of preparing time and much varied targets
in the logistics support. In the thesis, the mathematical method and quantitative analysis
technology are used for reducing the “sudden” and “uncertainty” in the support process,
which are of great significance for the informatization logical support.
The main factors of restrict tactical logistics and the necessity of the forecast of
support demand and the assessment of capacity were posed in the thesis based on the
status of the work of tactical logistics. The demand forecast was divided into the linear
forecast and the random forecast in the thesis that focus on discussing the ration analysis
process of the random forecast and the establishing of the Gray forecast model. The
competency assessment was divided into the support assessment and the managing
assessment in the thesis, which elaborated on evaluation system, confirming target,
target remark quantum, evaluating of forecast and calculating through using the dim
composite assessment theory. Combining with the concrete, the thesis testifies the
effectiveness of the mathematical model of the demand forecast and petency
assessment.
The function of the thesis is to direct the tactical logistics support.

Key Words:Tactical Logistics; Demand Forecast; Competency Assessment; Grey
Prediction Theory; prehensive Assessment
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国防科学技术大学研究生院工程硕士学位论文