文档介绍：Earthquake Prediction Research Earthquake Prediction Research [EPR] [EPR] & Disaster Management Strategy ?- - . . Ramanamurthy Ramanamurthy . . ? What is going on now? ? What is needed? ? Why it is difficult? ? What is to be done? ? Recent predictions …. 1) 1) Astronomical Astronomical : : ? Stellar constellation (s & stars) Moon, a Celestial body & Earth in straight line Turning points of the moon ’ s relative motion to the earth ? Tidal Generation Forces Resonance [TGFR] Data can puted in advance PRINCIPLE METHODS IN EPR PRINCIPLE METHODS IN EPR [much in advance] 2) 2) ic field change: ic field change: ? Change in ic field occurs 6-8 m before EQ. - Continuous monitoring ic field is required ? Audio, video & spectral disturbances just 10 to 20 hrs before earthquake occurrence. - Lattur & Andamans EQs : plaints increased. - In Turkey, Japan & China: mobile phones malfunctioned 50 to 100 minutes before EQ - Telephone exchange data useful: in land, mobile. [6-8 m] 3) 3) work GPS stations: work GPS stations: ? Area change ratio from Simultaneous & continuous Geodetic measurement is converted to annual change ratio [ ppm ].? Early warning should be issued if the change [in XY, XZ or YZ plane] is > 3ppm: ? I stage warning: 4 - 9 ppm ? II stage warning: 10 ppm ? III stage warning: >10 ppm + ve sign indicates tension & - ve sign pression [3-6 m] 4) 4) Differential SAR Differential SAR interferrometry interferrometry : : ? Differential Interferrometry - Provides relative measurement, few cm or even less movements in vertical direction. ? Small elevation changes caused by the buckling of the earth ’ s surface prior to EQ can be measured. ? For monitoring [pre, co & post seismic] Earth ’ s Crust – Dynamic Grid 4 satellites or more needed. ? NASA 7 d repeat L- band InSAR 4 satellites with 10 m resolution, okay. ? Long-term measurement of interse