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风险管理软件CrystalBall操作指南(英文版)(doc 16页)
Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®
To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:
1. Setup Spreadsheet
Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.
2. Define Assumptions—., random variables
Define which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.
3. Define Forecast—., output or performance measure
Define which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, ., profit).
4. Choose Number of Trials
Select the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.
5. Run Simulation
Run the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.
6. View Results
The forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.
Crystal Ball Toolbar:
Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast Trend
Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window Chart
Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®
Step #2 (Define Assumptions—., random variables)
Select the cell that contains the random variable (B17) — color code (blue):
and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):
Select type of distribution:
Provide parameters of distributions:
Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®
Step #3