文档介绍：Forecasting
Operations Management
petitive Advantage
CHASE AQUILANO JACOBS
ninth edition
Chapter 11
Chapter 11 Forecasting
Demand Management
Qualitative Forecasting Methods
Simple & Weighted Moving Average Forecasts
Exponential Smoothing
Simple Linear Regression
Demand Management
A
Independent Demand:
Finished Goods
B(4)
C(2)
D(2)
E(1)
D(3)
F(2)
Dependent Demand:
Raw Materials,
Component parts,
Sub-assemblies, etc.
Independent Demand: What a firm can do to manage it.
Can take an active role to influence demand.
Can take a passive role and simply respond to demand.
Types of Forecasts
Qualitative (Judgmental)
Quantitative
Time Series Analysis
Causal Relationships
Simulation
Components of Demand
Average demand for a period of time
Trend
Seasonal element
Cyclical elements
Random variation
Autocorrelation
ponents of Demand
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Sales
Seasonal variation
Linear
Trend
Qualitative Methods
Grass Roots
Market Research
Panel Consensus
Executive Judgment
Historical analogy
Delphi Method
Qualitative
Methods
Delphi Method
l. Choose the experts to participate. There should be a variety of knowledgeable people in different areas.
2. Through a questionnaire (or E-mail), obtain forecasts (and any premises or qualifications for the forecasts) from all participants.
3. Summarize the results and redistribute them to the participants along with appropriate new questions.
4. Summarize again, refining forecasts and conditions, and again develop new questions.
5. Repeat Step 4 if necessary. Distribute the final results to all participants.
Time Series Analysis
Time series forecasting models try to predict the future based on past data.
You can pick models based on:
1. Time horizon to forecast
2. Data availability
3. Accuracy required
4. Size of forecasting budget
5. Availability of qualified per