文档介绍：Chapter 11—The Basic Ideas in Statistical Inference 159
CHAPTER
The Basic Ideas in
11 Statistical Inference
Knowledge Without Probabilistic Statistical Inference
The Treatment of Uncertainty
Where Statistical Inference es Crucial
Conclusions
Probabilistic statistical inference is a crucial part of the pro-
cess of informing ourselves about the world around us. Sta-
tistics and statistical inference help us understand our world
and make sound decisions about how to act.
More specifically, statistical inference is the process of draw-
ing conclusions about populations or other collections of ob-
jects about which we have only partial knowledge from
samples. Technically, inference may be defined as the selec-
tion of a probabilistic model to resemble the process you wish
to investigate, investigation of that model’s behavior, and
interpretion of the results. Fuller understanding of the nature
of statistical es with practice in handling a vari-
ety of problems.
Until the 18th century, humanity’s extensive knowledge of
nature and technology was not based on formal probabilistic
statistical inference. But now that we have already dealt with
many of the big questions that are easy to answer without
probabilistic statistics, and now that we live in a more rami-
fied world than in earlier centuries, the methods of inferential
statistics e ever more important.
Furthermore, statistical inference will surely e ever more
important in the future as we voyage into realms that are in-
creasingly difficult prehend. The development of an
accurate chronometer to tell time on sea voyages became a cru-
cial need when Europeans sought to travel to the New World.
Similarly, probability and statistical inference e crucial
as we voyage out into space and down into the depths of the
ocean and the earth, as well as probe into the secrets of the
microcosm and of the human mind and soul.
160 Resampling: The New Statistics
Wher