文档介绍：A
Mathematician
Plays the
Stock Market
Also by John Allen Paulos
Mathematics and Humor (1980)
I Think Therefore I Laugh (1985)
Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy
and its Consequences (1988)
Beyond Numeracy: Ruminations
of a Numbers Man (1991)
A Mathematician Reads
the Newspaper (1995)
Once Upon a Number: The Hidden
Mathematical Logic of Stories (1998)
A
Mathematician
Plays the
Playsthe Stock Market
John Allen Paulos
BASIC
B
BOOKS
A Member of the Perseus Books Group
Copyright © 2003 by John Allen Paulos
Published by Basic Books,
A Member of the Perseus Books Group
All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part
of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without
written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in
critical articles and reviews. For information, address Basic Books,
387 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10016-8810.
Designed by Trish Wilkinson
Set in 11-point Sabon by the Perseus Books Group
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Paulos, John Allen.
A mathematician plays the stock market / John Allen Paulos.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-465-05480-3 (alk. paper)
1. Investments—Psychological aspects. 2. Stock
exchanges—Psychological aspects. 3. Stock exchanges—Mathematical
models. 4. Investment analysis. 5. Stocks. I. Title.
2003
'2042—dc21 2002156215
03 04 05 /10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To my father, who never played
the market and knew little about probability,
yet understood one of the prime lessons of both.
"Uncertainty," he would say, "is the only
certainty there is, and knowing how to live
with insecurity is the only security."
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Contents
1 Anticipating Others' Anticipations 1
Falling in Love with • Being Right Versus
Being Right About the Market • My Pedagogical
Cruelty • Common Knowledge, Jealousy, and Mar-
ket Sell-Of