文档介绍：企业财务预警系统分析
摘要
企业经营中财务风险的客观存在及其激发已严重威胁着企业的生存和发展,如何对企业的财务危机进行预警成为了近年来社会普遍关注的问题。
本论文首先在总结国内外有关企业财务预警研究的基础上,分析了企业财务危机的定义及分类,研究了引起企业财务危机的各方面因素,总结了财务预警系统的定义、作用、特点、构成及构成原则;其次在对目前流行财务预警系统缺陷的分析基础上,以一个全新的视角,借鉴国外流行的奥曼模型,选取了以现金流量分析为基础的财务综合预警指数测度系统作为本论文的预警系统模型。
在实证研究部分以深圳赛格电子股份有限公司为研究对象,运用现金流量模型对公司2004年财务数据资料进行分析,预测2005年的风险程度。
最后,通过分析2005年的业绩来验证一下企业存在财务风险的影响。
关键词: 财务危机,财务风险预警系统,现金流量, 财务综合预警指数测度系统,实证研究
注:本论文题目来源于企业项目
Abstract
Enterprise management of financial risks exist objectively and stimulate has a serious threat to the survival and development of enterprises, how to enterprise's financial crisis pre-warning e the attention of the society in recent years.
This paper firstly summarized in the financial affairs warning research on the basis of the analysis of enterprise financial crisis, the definition and classification, the study of enterprise financial crisis caused by various factors, summarizes the financial affairs warning system of the definition, function, characteristics, formation position principle, Secondly on popular financial early-warning system based on the analysis of the defect, with a brand-new Angle, the popular abroad, Raman model based on cash flow analysis of financial early-warning index system as prehensive measure of this dissertation warning system model.
In the empirical research of shenzhen seg electronics Co., ltd., as the research object, the use of cash flow pany financial data in 2004 are analyzed, and the degree of risk prediction in 2005.
Finally, through the analysis of the performance of the 2005 to verify the existence of the financial risks of enterprise.
Key words: Financial crisis, Financial risk pre-warning system, Cash flow,
Financial early-warning index system prehensive measure, Empirical research
目录
1 绪论 1
课题研究的背景及目的 1
课题研究的内容及本文思路 1
财务预警系统国内外研究现状 1
1
5
2 企业财务风险概述 8
8
10
系统性财务风险 10
非系统性财务风险 10
3 企业财务预警系统概述 12
企业财务预警系