文档介绍：2009 中国经济学年会
研究领域:国防经济学
基于进化博弈的装备采购制度变迁分析
杜军岗 1 魏汝祥 1 陈子山川 2
(,武汉 430033;,青岛 266000)
摘要:通过对装备采购制度变迁中各行为主体的划分,装备采购制度改革可以看作宏观层次宏观决策层面与中间
政策制定层面和微观层次中间政策制定层面与微观政策执行层面的博弈,两个层次的博弈通过中间政策制定层面
连接起来。然后,又引入进化博弈分析方法,建立装备采购制度双层次互动进化博弈变迁模型,通过模型分析认
为装备采购制度的改革过程是通过微观层次的“突变”和宏观层次的“选择”,以进化安定均衡的产生和打破来
体现这一互动的制度演进过程,并得出一些启示与建议。
关键词:装备采购制度;双层次进化博弈;演进;制度变迁
The Analysis of Equipment ProcurementInstitution Change Based on
Evolutionary Game Theory
Du Jun-gang1,Wei Ru-xiang1,Chen Zi-shan chuan2
(. of Military Economy Management, Naval Univ. of Engineering, Wuhan430033, China;
2. Naval Univ. of Submarin,Qingdao 266000)
Abstract: According to the level division of behavior maker, the process of equipment procurement institution change
could be seen as the macro game which was happened between the macro decision-making level and the middle
policy–constituting level and micro game which was happened between the middle policy–constituting level and micro
policy–executing level. The two reciprocal games were connected via the middle policy–constituting level. Then the
analysis method of evolutionary game theory was introduced, and the reciprocal evolutional two-level game model of
equipment procurement institution change was established. Through the analysis of this model, we can got the
conclusion that via the micro catastrophe and the macro selection, the equipment procurement institution change was
represented by the process of evolutionarily stable equilibrium producing and breaking, and then some
inspiration and advice were elicited.
Keywords: Equipment ProcurementInstitution; evolutional two-level game; Institution Change
0 引言
进化博弈论(Evolutionary Game Theory)是近年来博弈理论的新发展,是把博弈理论分析和动
态演化过程分析结合起来的一种新理论,最初产生于生物学领域。它以群体行为为研究对象,放弃
了传统博弈论的充分理性假说,将生物体视为有限理性( Bounded Rational)的当局者,它们在相
互竞争的同时完成自身的进化,合理解释了生物行为的进化过程[1]。随后,经济学家将之引入经济
分析中[2],认为社会制度并非是人为设计的结果,而是大量有限理性的个人在相互博弈的基础上形
1
成的一种适应环境变化和社会发展的均衡态,它们不断被保存下来,又不断向前进化,即在所谓适
应性进化(Ad