文档介绍：Long-term industry
Global Automobiles view
The Chinese Auto Industry
Too many bulls in a China shop? Automakers are rushing
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to expand capacity, lured by bold growth projections. But we fear
February 21, 2003 the market could prove volatile, pricing could fall faster than costs,
Autos coverage views: and cash flows from JVs could disappoint. The high returns
Europe: Attractive currently enjoyed in China, particularly by VW, seem unlikely to last.
US: Cautious
Japan: Attractive
Chinese auto sales growing rapidly; unit profitability high
China is the world’s fastest growing auto market, with car sales up 62% in 2002. The mn
units sold in ’pare to mn in 1996. Unusually for a developing market, profitability
is high too: VW and Honda make their highest unit margins in China, but this is due to high
tariffs and protected pricing. Production costs are higher than in Japan, Europe or the US.
Keith Hayes bn potential customers – the auto industry just can’t resist the pull
@ Facing stagnant demand in other markets, the auto industry can barely contain its excitement
London: 44-20-7774-1142
about China. Car ownership levels are low, e levels appear to be rising and China
Max Warburton represents the largest potential market of all. Automakers are rushing to add new capacity.
@
London: 44-20-7774-5905 Continued market growth is not assured, investment risks are high
Gary Lapidus Many industries have rushed to invest in China, only to find that returns disappoint. Auto
@ industry investments could prove over-optimistic given the risks of market volatility. Real
New York: 1-212-902-2359 GDP and e growth rates remain unclear, the banking system faces challenges and
government borrowing is still rising. This means that the path of growth is likely to be rocky.
Kunihiko Shiohara
@
Tokyo: 81-3-3589-8869 Overcapacity a real